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The 2010
Atlantic Hurricane Season kicked off on June 1st with a frightening set of
signifiers: millions of gallons of oil in the Gulf of Mexico thanks to the BP
Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean up to a record four degrees above average. Weak wind shear predictions
thanks to an evaporating El Niño pattern over the eastern Pacific. And a recent
hurricane history that’s scary to consider — eight of the last 15 seasons
rank in the top ten for named storms, with the destructive and historic 2005
year holding 1st-place with 28 named storms.
That makes
the Atlantic Hurricane Season Extended-Range Forecast released each spring by
Colorado State University’s The Tropical Meteorology Project researchers Philip J.
Koltzbach and William M. Gray all the more ominous, since both suggest 2010’s
tropical activity could be on par with 2005’s. Gray and Koltzbach predict a
“very active hurricane season in 2010… with a well above-average probability of
United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.” If you want numbers,
Gray and Koltzbach expect 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and five major
hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph.
The National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center also
predicts an “active to extremely active” season, with a statistically broad
range of numbers: 14 to 23 named storms, eight to 14 hurricanes, and three to
seven major hurricanes. Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere
with NOAA Jane Lubchenco added, “If this outlook holds true, this season could
be one of the more active on record.”
No matter
what, it’s safe to say that 2010 will see more motion in the Atlantic Ocean
than 2009, when increased wind shear kept all but Hurricane Bill, Tropical
Storm Danny, and the subtropical hybrid Nor’Ida from delivering waves to Right
Coast surfers. Although we’ve suffered through a mediocre winter and spring,
our overamped hopes for an active season are tempered by the frightening
scenario of a Gulf hurricane interacting with over 100 million gallons of oil.
Nobody has any idea what the outcome of that situation would look like, just as
very few of us have any idea just how active this 2010 Atlantic Hurricane
Season will be.
And that
makes an honest, historical, and even humorous photographic assessment of
recent Hurricane Seasons gone by all the more necessary. God knows we could use
a little nostalgic reflection in this nervous new season.
For more detailed information on forecasting
the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season, visit NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center at www.cpc.noaa.gov or
Colorado State University’s The Tropical
Meteorology Project at tropical.atmos.colostate.edu
For a non-governmental and non-academic
viewpoint, check out Weather Underground’s all-encompassing Tropical page,
along with Dr. Jeff Masters’
WunderBlog, at www.wunderground.com/tropical
And an NOAA factsheet on hurricanes and the
oil spill can be downloaded here.
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